The next stage

First, my recommended media since my last post:

Excellent interview on “Fresh Air”, highly informative, very factual, excellent overview of the history. One of the few (maybe only) pieces on U.S. media I have found that analyzes the situation in the historical context accurately. Highly recommend listening to the entire interview, the summary text leaves out some very important points.

Another article by Masha Gessen, who wrote a biography of Putin and is one of the few Americans/few Russians who has one foot solidly in each world and can appreciate/critique both of them with full credibility. (Page 2 is the most important part of her article, please read all the way through.)

Any/All of the recent the Charlie Rose Show programs about Ukraine (search by keyword “Ukraine”). There is a lot I don’t agree with, but I appreciate the calm discourse and respectful dialogue – so uncommon on U.S. TV these days!

And this article from the Atlantic Council, which, combined with the Fresh Air interview, support my assessment of what is happening and what is about to happen. I wish I could find an article that does NOT confirm the conclusions I have already made, but so far, no luck.

My conclusion? Russia will invade mainland Ukraine within the next few days. There are reports that former president Yanukovich will give a press conference tomorrow (Friday), although apparently now it’s not entirely clear if he will make a public appearance or not. In any case, when we first heard he would speak, Igor’s analysis/conclusion was that Yanukovich will again declare himself the legitimate president and express concern about the fascists/extremists/nationalists in Ukraine, and either directly or in a round-about way ask for Russia to intervene, thus paving the way for Putin to give the order. Considering the above Atlantic Council article, it seems this weekend will very likely be the next step.

I know that’s quite a bombshell to drop, and I promise to come back to it before this post ends. There are a few other things I’d like to tell you about first.

I attended a couple events last week that gave me hope. The first was a meeting with the new minister of economics and the second with the new minister of education. Years ago, I used to regularly attend events and even had working meetings with government representatives (back in my UNDP/UN Volunteer days). They were generally unproductive, uninspiring and even maddening. I stopped going to them entirely at some point, don’t even remember when was the last time I went to an event with a speaker from the Ukrainian government, they were so stupid and such a waste of time. So to go to TWO within the same week was kind of a big deal for me. And WOW, was I ever impressed! I simply cannot express the utter relief I felt at both events – I was soooo comforted to realize that smart, competent, educated people are in positions of leadership now, finally! They didn’t get the jobs because they are related to someone or are somebody’s buddy, but because they actually are experts in their fields. Both recognized that they have full messes on their hands, that there is a ton of work to do and it won’t be easy to fix all the damage that was done by the previous administration, but they have realistic and solid plans about how to start tackling all the problems. That gives me hope.

Unfortunately, our neighbor to the north does not want them to be successful, and is doing his best to distract/disrupt/screw with them as much as possible. We are all heartbroken about what has happened to Crimea, and all those poor people who mean nothing to Putin and he just screws with their lives…. it’s so sad.

I know the U.S. and, to the extent they can agree on it and are willing to suck up a little pain themselves, the EU are working both publicly and behind the scenes very intensely to try to help Ukraine. I am SUPER impressed with the extremely vocal and visible support the State Department is giving to Ukraine. I know those in the U.S. probably don’t follow any U.S. Embassies on Facebook or Twitter, and might not have ever even looked at the State Department’s website, much less the website of the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, or any other embassy for that matter. I understand, I never did before I lived abroad. Americans, especially those in the U.S., are not their audience and they don’t promote their activities to you. So before you criticize President Obama or Secretary Kerry or “the government” for doing nothing, please peruse some of the sites linked here. The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine is running a brilliant campaign on Facebook to counter the lies being spread by Putin’s propaganda machine. They post everything in 4 languages: Ukrainian, Russian, Crimean Tatar and English. I *heart* them. Many other U.S Embassies in the region are also engaged in the United for Ukraine campaign, especially those in countries with Russian minorities whom Putin is targeting with his dishonest and hateful propaganda.

As for the EU, well, my opinion hasn’t changed a whole lot, although I agree with the Economist that the EU managed to “come up with a sterner response than many expected”. A friend pointed out to me recently that this is, essentially, the first seriously major conflict the EU has had to deal with on its own border, since its inception, and for the first time they have to have an EU foreign policy, and not the individual foreign policies of each member state. OK, I’ll give them that. But damn it, get your sh*t together already ’cause you don’t have a lot of time to dicker amongst yourselves anymore!

I wasn’t really impressed with the first round of sanctions President Obama imposed against those who were essentially just guilty of carrying out their orders. Don’t get me wrong, I hold them responsible, too, and they deserve to be punished for following illegal and immoral orders, but it struck me initially as punishing the messenger. The second round of sanctions made the strategy much clearer to me, and I can’t say I disagree with it – moving in closer, hitting not only the “decision makers” (ultimately Putin alone makes decisions, but hitting those whom he likes to have in his kabuki theater to sign off on those decisions = closing in on him), but also Russian businesses that are really just fronts / money launderers for Putin.

Although I fully support the sanctions, and hope the U.S. and the EU will continue to add to their lists, I still do not believe they will have any effect on Putin at all. As I said before, isolating Putin both politically and economically will absolutely NOT have the effect the West desires – he isolates Russia himself and does not care at all to be part of any international community. As Dr. Martin states in her interview on “Fresh Air”: “And by his recent actions, he has shown that he no longer cares about the economic internationalists among the elites — the people who were pushing for Russia to join the World Trade Organization, the people who recognize that Russia’s economy is in stagnation and that the only way to get it out of stagnation is to diversify beyond its petroleum dependence and to really become a player in the international economy. Putin has chosen, instead, to throw in his lot with ethnic nationalists, who are associated both with conservative elements in the Russian Orthodox Church and with the former KGB.”

And thus my conclusion that Putin’s next step will be boots and tanks on the ground in mainland Ukraine. In his own words, from his March 18 speech in the Kremlin: “… the overall basis of the culture, civilisation and human values that unite the peoples of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.” Putin has spent every day since the illegal referendum in Crimea prepping the stage for his next steps – invasion of mainland Ukraine, and ultimately subjugation of the Slavic peoples in Ukraine and Belarus (“reunification with Russia” in his bizarre world view).

The one thing he continues to do that I just don’t get is that he tries to set the stage and create these scenes of artificial “justifications” and “reasons” for his actions. I truly do not believe he cares one iota for international law or what the world thinks of him. I guess maybe it’s a tiny good sign that he might feel the need to create these theatrics to justify his actions to the Russian people – I know there is opposition in Russia, although even expressing an opinion slightly in disagreement has dangerous consequences, not to mention the reaction you’ll get for a public protest. But if Putin feels a need to create “justifications” for his actions, it means he must feel the need to justify them to somebody. I’m still not sure who that somebody is, but if that’s his Achilles heel, please U.S. and EU, try to figure it out and target that spot!

So, I promised at the start of this post that I would come back to the bomb that I dropped on you that I expect a Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine within the next 2-3 days. Even as I write these words I recognize that I do not, cannot fully comprehend the statement. Igor and I have had many long, heated debates about what to do, who will or will not leave, if things escalate. We reached sort-of a truce last Thursday night, mostly I think we were just exhausted from the week and the latest multi-hour “discussion” of the topic, but nonetheless we agreed to disagree and simply have to accept the fact that neither of us has any intention of leaving Ukraine if Russia invades. I am not leaving him here on his own, and there is no way he will do anything but stay and fight for Ukraine.

I want to say to all my dear family and friends, I am sorry, I wish I could help you all feel more secure about us. I won’t ask you not to worry, because I know you will in any case. But please rest assured that we are safe right now, and Igor won’t let me do anything stupid and I won’t let him do anything stupid. If you can figure out how to keep Putin from doing any more stupid things, please let President Obama know.

EuroMaidan Spring in Kyiv

What do Kyivans do when the weather gets nice? We go for a walk to Maidan. The clear skies, the warm temperatures, the flowers springing up seemingly overnight – it’s beautiful and refreshing and we all take a deep breath and exhale in relief that we’ve made it through another winter. We go to Kreschatik street, which is closed to cars every weekend year round and becomes an unofficial, spontaneous festival on weekends when the weather is nice. Musicians play for spare change, you can get your picture taken with Spongebob or Bugs Bunny, you can buy Kyiv souvenirs or a football club scarf, and you absolutely must get an ice cream from the street kiosk. The cafes and restaurants open onto the sidewalks, and you stop for a cold beer here, a hot coffee there, and you watch the people walking by and they watch you.

This weekend, the first weekend of spring and the first truly warm days of the year, is no exception. Kyivans came out on Saturday for our first spring stroll along Kreschatik. Families and couples and friends, many dressed in their finest; elderly walking slowly, leaning on canes, babies in strollers, children dashing about, teenagers snuggling and kissing on park benches.

There is an exception this year, though – Kreschatik is not closed with orange cones or just for the weekend. The EuroMaidan barricades are still in place, piles of tires and planters and furniture and street signs and barbed wire and sandbags six-seven-maybe eight feet tall block the streets and sidewalks around Maidan.

We enter through the narrow gap in the barricade, and it is quiet. The costumed entertainers are out as usual, but Spongebob and Bugs Bunny stay outside the barricades. The souvenir stands are selling EuroMaidan Revolution calendars and Ukrainian flags and scarves and pins. The shops are open, as they have been throughout the past four months. People wander in and out of them, part of the weekend walk tradition. The protestors’ tents are still all around, people still living in them, keeping watch over the revolution, not yet ready to completely trust the new government, not yet ready to take their eyes off it – the politicians need to remember they are accountable to The Maidan.

The sidewalk bricks are piled in huge stacks all along Kreschatik and Maidan, pulled up by protestors to use in self-defense against the police during the clashes in December and January and February. Meager weapons against the bullets shot by the Berkut special forces, but somehow, defying logic, the protestors armed with sticks and bricks and Molotov cocktails beat back the Berkut and gained ground on February 20. (Here are two videos from that horrible day, the second one in particular is very, very hard to watch.)

Looking up, I see the burned-out shell of the Trade Unions building on the far side of Maidan.

We approach the square, the Maidan, and there are flowers everywhere, candles everywhere, memorials and shrines to the brave people who fought here, who died here.

We turn to go up Instytutska street, and we pass through the inner barricade, under the bridge, into the more dangerous territory (more dangerous then, when they were fighting). The flowers are piled nearly as high as the barricades here. There are pictures of the men who were shot here. It is so quiet, so somber, so heartbreakingly sad. Parents are here with their children, teaching them about the heroes of Maidan, whispering like in church, no one wants to disturb the solemnity. I can’t take a picture here, I don’t want to take a picture here. This is a sacred place.

We pass the second barricade and onto the “territory” that was under Berkut control then. I look to the right, towards the presidential administration building. I look to the left, towards the Verkhovna Rada, the parliament building. We go towards the parliament, we want to see it again now that the fences are gone. The ousted president had the fences erected around parliament shortly after he was elected four years ago, to keep the people away. But he is gone now, and so are his fences.

We walk through Marinsky Park, one of our favorite places in Kyiv and part of every Kyivan’s weekend stroll tradition. But for three months it was “behind enemy lines”, occupied by the police and Berkut forces and the staged “Anti-Maidan” demonstrations.

We walk down the hill along Grushevskoho street, past the Cabinet of Ministers building and the Dynamo football stadium. Police buses blocked this street for months. Protestors built barricades here too, and piled up the street bricks to defend against the attacking police. We pass through, single file, the one tiny opening that’s been made in the wall of tires.

Narrow passages are between the piled bricks to let one car pass through at a time. No one honks impatiently at the snail’s pace of traffic at Grushevskoho. It’s quiet here, so unusual for a Kyiv street in spring.

Igor takes me to the spot where he delivered wood throughout the terribly cold winter months when people stood here day and night, between the first and second barricade lines. I didn’t know he was coming this close to the front, and I’m glad he didn’t tell me then. One day he helped stack the street bricks here.

Drivers carefully navigate around a huge pile of flowers in the middle of Grushevskoho street.

And we navigate around them on the sidewalks, too.

We walk home, each quietly contemplating this spring day, this hard winter that has finally passed, what we’ve seen, what we’ve felt. We sit on the balcony in the evening, windows open to the fresh spring air, cleansing our lungs and our minds and our souls. And we grieve together and we start to heal together.

Surreal

Strangest argument of my life, and I hope it’s never repeated. Who stays, who goes if/when the occupation gets closer to us.

We both lost. We both are staying. First battle won/lost.

What is a “referendum”?

Many of you have reached out since my last update – I am very sorry that I can’t reply to you each individually but please know that it is extremely comforting to know you are thinking about Igor and me, and that you are paying attention to what is happening in Ukraine.

We are still far geographically from Putin’s aggression, but we are feeling it closer and closer morally. I say “Putin” specifically because I have many friends and colleagues in and from Russia, and I do not (cannot) believe a well-informed Russian would agree with what is happening, thus I lay the illegal acts solely on the shoulders of one man – Vladimir Putin. I did not want to be held personally accountable for the illegal acts for George W. Bush, and in that same philosophy, I won’t hold all Russians responsible for the acts of a very wrong-minded president. Sadly, many Russians are victims of his propaganda and believe the lies they are told.

There is much discussion that Putin is insane, Obama is weak, the EU should do more. I will address these in reverse order, and emphasize that these are my personal opinions. Plus, I’ve not slept well in several weeks, so please forgive me for not being particularly articulate or polite.

The EU: Anyone who counts on the EU for anything is just plain naive. The concept of the EU is great, but in practice they can not agree on an effective way out of a paper bag. They will spend 3 months discussing the language of a slightly stern letter, and then ultimately not agree. This has been the way of the EU since its conception, and in theory I kinda like the idea of a government that debates how to get out of a paper bag, but their ineffectiveness is just, well, ineffective in the real world.

The U.S.: President Obama has been criticized on both sides of the pond for not being “strong” enough against Putin. I have 2 thoughts on this: (1) It’s not the U.S.’s border at risk here, it’s the EU’s freaking border and thus the EU ought to be taking leadership, and (2) I absolutely do not want to be at ground zero of World War III, and I THANK President Obama for not risking the lives of every single person in Ukraine for some geopolitical power-play to show how “strong” he is.

As for “Putin is insane”, I suppose anything is possible, but I am inclined to agree with Masha Gessen’s analysis in her recent op-ed (she wrote a biography of Putin a couple years ago). This article that she recommended is also very good, albeit very discouraging:

If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, well, then it’s the U.S. and the EU who are insane, not Putin. He has behaved exactly the same way for 15 years, and gets the same results each and every time (Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, and many other similar situations). The West, on the other hand, has never once been able to get Putin to play by their rules, and they will NEVER be able to get him to. Sanctions are necessary and the EU should stop buying Russian gas and oil immediately, but further isolating Putin both politically and economically will absolutely NOT have the effect the West desires – he isolates Russia himself and does not care at all to be part of any international community.

Some of you have asked about news sources. I am quite disappointed with most European and U.S. media and have almost entirely stopped following them. The BBC has generally been OK, but the speed with which they capitulated Crimea to Russia was disheartening. The fact that they continue to refer to the “referendum” in Crimea as the “illegal” referendum, putting quotes around illegal instead of referendum, is disappointing, as if it is questionable that the referendum is illegal, when it is absolutely sure that the referendum is unconstitutional and illegal. When the only countries that say they recognize the referendum as legit are the likes of Russia, Syria, North Korea, and Venezuela, you know something ain’t right. As for the U.S. media, I find their myopia frightening and insulting. The world does not revolve around the United States, and I simply cannot listen to another “news report” that pivots the focus of every story to the “battle” between Democrats and Republicans. This is not about Obama, no matter how hard the media or politicians try to make it about him.

Good English-language sources I can recommend are: Kyiv Post (independent news in Ukraine), Moscow Times (independent news in Russia), Al Jazeera, and sometimes BBC (although less and less). On Twitter: @ChristopherJM, @shustry, @andersostlund, @EuroMaydan_eng, @edwardlucas, @steven_pifer, @MGongadze, @UkrEmbassyUSA, to name a few. Oh, and me, @ankabelle.

I also highly recommend this article by my good friend Bill Varettoni, who really knows what the hell he is talking about. And this rather predictive article of his from 2011.

And Bill basically says it all about the “referendum”:
On the upcoming “referendum” in Crimea – A referendum held at gunpoint without any outside, unbiased observers? In the presence of a foreign army? And where maintaining the previous state of affairs before the armed invasion is not even a choice on the ballot? ‘Will of the people’ is good and right, but you can’t possibly believe this ballot has any hope of representing the will of the people.

————

I have not been able to write an update recently about what is happening because, frankly, I see no outcome that is not horrible, and it’s just too hard to think about. I find it challenging to go down any theoretical path about what happens next, as every path leads me to a terrible conclusion. Putin will never play by anyone else’s rules, and it’s pointless to try to negotiate with him as if with a civilized world leader who recognizes the values of a global society. But I absolutely don’t want the U.S or the EU to play by Putin’s rules, because I think it would be disastrous to do so – I am not exaggerating when I say we could be on the brink of World War III if the U.S. and/or the EU respond to Putin in the only language he understands, one of aggression and violence. I do not think he values human life, and it will mean nothing to him to destroy all of Ukraine, Europe or even the globe. But I don’t want my beloved Ukraine to be abandoned by the EU or the U.S., left alone to fend for herself against the worst and possibly most dangerous bully of our time. Ukrainians will fight to obliteration before submitting again to rule from Moscow, I have no doubts about this. Crimea may likely be lost, but I do not believe Putin will stop there.

And thus, the terrible conclusions to which I cannot find any alternatives. If you haven’t already asked me about my evacuation plans, I know you want to now. I could leave at any moment, but I don’t plan on it, at least not yet. Every day is “wait and see”, and I’ll keep waiting and seeing.

Hoping Putin’s next botox shot is from a bad batch….

Russia invades

It is painful to have to start another update with the statement “We are safe.” Thank you for all your thoughts and emails, and your concern about Igor and me, as well as Ukraine and all Ukrainians.

Crimea is far from Kyiv – over 800km (500mi) from Kyiv to Simferopol, the capital of Crimea, and nearly 900km (560mi) to Sevastopol, the port city where Russia has a naval base. However, of course, what happens anywhere in the country has effects on and in the capital. I no longer think Putin has any sense in him at all, and I wouldn’t find it impossible to believe he’s got his sights on Kyiv eventually. Russian troops came within 100km/60mi of the Georgian capital Tbilisi in 2008.

Ironically, though, for the first time in 3 months, we feel safe in Kyiv. Life was beginning to return to normal – offices and shops are all open, the heavy cloud of tension and fear had lifted, we aren’t worried what insane actions the special forces or police will take against peaceful demonstrators. In fact, the sadistic special forces “Berkut” have been disbanded. Public transportation is running normally. We aren’t afraid to speak openly, on the phone or on the street.

I can tell you now about the incredible and brave work the volunteers with Medical Help for Maidan Victims did for three months, not just helping the victims and their families with money, medicine and other supplies. They also operated a kind of underground railroad to protect injured demonstrators, move them to safe houses around Ukraine and out of the country even, to hide and protect them from the police that were arresting Maidan participants in hospitals and “disappearing” them. These incredible volunteers risked their lives, carrying the injured and dead away from the front lines so the doctors wouldn’t be at risk of hurt or shot on the battleground. If they had been caught transporting patients to safe houses, they would have been, at best, arrested, at worst, killed or disappeared, as happened to a still-unknown number of people.

But I want to tell you about the brave heroes another time, when Ukraine is safe and free for all her citizens, and when we can truly celebrate the Maidan victory.

I don’t know what to say about what is happening in Crimea. This article gives a decent overview of the history of the peninsula (and links to an excellent article that debunks the ridiculous over-simplification of the linguistic diversity in Ukraine). Sadly, the predictions the author made on Thursday that Putin would not engage in an armed conflict were proven wrong on Saturday, when Putin and his rubber-stamp parliament decided to authorize armed force in Ukraine. My good and wise friend Bill Campsey shared his thoughts this morning, and said I could share them with you (pasted below). I can’t add much, he’s expressed a perspective I agree with. I would only add that what scares me the most is the talk that the EU or the US or anybody else should respond militarily to Russia – we don’t need other countries fighting their wars on Ukrainian land again. I desperately hope there will be clearer minds in the days ahead, as we approach the centennial of the start of WWI. Smaller acts have started devastating wars in this part of the world …

With love and hope for peace,
Ann

Quoting Bill Campsey:
There is a surreal quality to the Crimean crisis being played out right now. On the one hand, there are two provocations that we cannot ignore:
– The brute force of armed troops violating the sovereignty of the recognized borders of Ukraine … yes, Russia has recognized these borders in a treaty.
– The tacky and ostentatious “permission” engineered by Putin and declared by the Duma to intervene militarily in Ukraine

Paradoxically, there are two examples of restraint:
– The armed troops are clearly Russian, but their insignia is hidden away.
– Away from the epicenters of media focus, business and social life in Crimea continue to operate normally.

What do we make of this? I have constructed a narrative which I explain below. But, it is important to understand this narrative like one would understand a scientific hypothesis. As new facts emerge that strengthen or weaken it, I must be prepared to adjust it. I must be prepared even to reject it as wrong.

Putin does not have a plan. He had a plan. It was based on the reasonable expectation that Victor Yanukovich would not have turned out to be nearly as stupid as he was. In at least three instances, Yanukovich had to make exactly the wrong decision to fuel the opposition against him. First was the violence against the original Maidan demonstrators on 30 November 2013. Next, in mid-January 2014, the Rada (Ukrainian parliament) passed the “anti-protest” laws. Finally, during 18 – 20 February 2014, the tragic death of scores of protesters and some police during the worst of the EuroMaidan protests sealed the demise of Yanukovich’s presidency. This spiral down into the depths of stupidity was not what Putin had planned for his puppet.

I don’t see any indication that Putin had a plan B. I don’t see any indication that he has yet fully formed a Plan B. Rather, he has reverted to his KGB cultural roots. This involves two interrelated actions:

(1) Create a crisis
(2) Be positioned to take advantage of any diplomatic (preferred) or military (definitely not preferred) opportunity that will avail itself.

These two precepts explain the contradictory realities in Crimea right now. The ostentatious use of brute force still can be legally (if not credibly) disconnected from Russia if Russia sees a diplomatic advantage to do so. That is, if Ukraine and the West find some means to provide Putin with some face-saving bit of diplomacy, he will seize it. This face-saving diplomacy must look like a “win” to the ethnic Russian “street” in Crimea and to the popular wisdom of the Russian people.

I don’t know what such a diplomatic “win” would be for Putin. But, I don’t think he knows either. He is watching and waiting for that opportunity to present itself.