First, my recommended media since my last post:
Excellent interview on “Fresh Air”, highly informative, very factual, excellent overview of the history. One of the few (maybe only) pieces on U.S. media I have found that analyzes the situation in the historical context accurately. Highly recommend listening to the entire interview, the summary text leaves out some very important points.
Another article by Masha Gessen, who wrote a biography of Putin and is one of the few Americans/few Russians who has one foot solidly in each world and can appreciate/critique both of them with full credibility. (Page 2 is the most important part of her article, please read all the way through.)
Any/All of the recent the Charlie Rose Show programs about Ukraine (search by keyword “Ukraine”). There is a lot I don’t agree with, but I appreciate the calm discourse and respectful dialogue – so uncommon on U.S. TV these days!
And this article from the Atlantic Council, which, combined with the Fresh Air interview, support my assessment of what is happening and what is about to happen. I wish I could find an article that does NOT confirm the conclusions I have already made, but so far, no luck.
My conclusion? Russia will invade mainland Ukraine within the next few days. There are reports that former president Yanukovich will give a press conference tomorrow (Friday), although apparently now it’s not entirely clear if he will make a public appearance or not. In any case, when we first heard he would speak, Igor’s analysis/conclusion was that Yanukovich will again declare himself the legitimate president and express concern about the fascists/extremists/nationalists in Ukraine, and either directly or in a round-about way ask for Russia to intervene, thus paving the way for Putin to give the order. Considering the above Atlantic Council article, it seems this weekend will very likely be the next step.
I know that’s quite a bombshell to drop, and I promise to come back to it before this post ends. There are a few other things I’d like to tell you about first.
I attended a couple events last week that gave me hope. The first was a meeting with the new minister of economics and the second with the new minister of education. Years ago, I used to regularly attend events and even had working meetings with government representatives (back in my UNDP/UN Volunteer days). They were generally unproductive, uninspiring and even maddening. I stopped going to them entirely at some point, don’t even remember when was the last time I went to an event with a speaker from the Ukrainian government, they were so stupid and such a waste of time. So to go to TWO within the same week was kind of a big deal for me. And WOW, was I ever impressed! I simply cannot express the utter relief I felt at both events – I was soooo comforted to realize that smart, competent, educated people are in positions of leadership now, finally! They didn’t get the jobs because they are related to someone or are somebody’s buddy, but because they actually are experts in their fields. Both recognized that they have full messes on their hands, that there is a ton of work to do and it won’t be easy to fix all the damage that was done by the previous administration, but they have realistic and solid plans about how to start tackling all the problems. That gives me hope.
Unfortunately, our neighbor to the north does not want them to be successful, and is doing his best to distract/disrupt/screw with them as much as possible. We are all heartbroken about what has happened to Crimea, and all those poor people who mean nothing to Putin and he just screws with their lives…. it’s so sad.
I know the U.S. and, to the extent they can agree on it and are willing to suck up a little pain themselves, the EU are working both publicly and behind the scenes very intensely to try to help Ukraine. I am SUPER impressed with the extremely vocal and visible support the State Department is giving to Ukraine. I know those in the U.S. probably don’t follow any U.S. Embassies on Facebook or Twitter, and might not have ever even looked at the State Department’s website, much less the website of the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, or any other embassy for that matter. I understand, I never did before I lived abroad. Americans, especially those in the U.S., are not their audience and they don’t promote their activities to you. So before you criticize President Obama or Secretary Kerry or “the government” for doing nothing, please peruse some of the sites linked here. The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine is running a brilliant campaign on Facebook to counter the lies being spread by Putin’s propaganda machine. They post everything in 4 languages: Ukrainian, Russian, Crimean Tatar and English. I *heart* them. Many other U.S Embassies in the region are also engaged in the United for Ukraine campaign, especially those in countries with Russian minorities whom Putin is targeting with his dishonest and hateful propaganda.
As for the EU, well, my opinion hasn’t changed a whole lot, although I agree with the Economist that the EU managed to “come up with a sterner response than many expected”. A friend pointed out to me recently that this is, essentially, the first seriously major conflict the EU has had to deal with on its own border, since its inception, and for the first time they have to have an EU foreign policy, and not the individual foreign policies of each member state. OK, I’ll give them that. But damn it, get your sh*t together already ’cause you don’t have a lot of time to dicker amongst yourselves anymore!
I wasn’t really impressed with the first round of sanctions President Obama imposed against those who were essentially just guilty of carrying out their orders. Don’t get me wrong, I hold them responsible, too, and they deserve to be punished for following illegal and immoral orders, but it struck me initially as punishing the messenger. The second round of sanctions made the strategy much clearer to me, and I can’t say I disagree with it – moving in closer, hitting not only the “decision makers” (ultimately Putin alone makes decisions, but hitting those whom he likes to have in his kabuki theater to sign off on those decisions = closing in on him), but also Russian businesses that are really just fronts / money launderers for Putin.
Although I fully support the sanctions, and hope the U.S. and the EU will continue to add to their lists, I still do not believe they will have any effect on Putin at all. As I said before, isolating Putin both politically and economically will absolutely NOT have the effect the West desires – he isolates Russia himself and does not care at all to be part of any international community. As Dr. Martin states in her interview on “Fresh Air”: “And by his recent actions, he has shown that he no longer cares about the economic internationalists among the elites — the people who were pushing for Russia to join the World Trade Organization, the people who recognize that Russia’s economy is in stagnation and that the only way to get it out of stagnation is to diversify beyond its petroleum dependence and to really become a player in the international economy. Putin has chosen, instead, to throw in his lot with ethnic nationalists, who are associated both with conservative elements in the Russian Orthodox Church and with the former KGB.”
And thus my conclusion that Putin’s next step will be boots and tanks on the ground in mainland Ukraine. In his own words, from his March 18 speech in the Kremlin: “… the overall basis of the culture, civilisation and human values that unite the peoples of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.” Putin has spent every day since the illegal referendum in Crimea prepping the stage for his next steps – invasion of mainland Ukraine, and ultimately subjugation of the Slavic peoples in Ukraine and Belarus (“reunification with Russia” in his bizarre world view).
The one thing he continues to do that I just don’t get is that he tries to set the stage and create these scenes of artificial “justifications” and “reasons” for his actions. I truly do not believe he cares one iota for international law or what the world thinks of him. I guess maybe it’s a tiny good sign that he might feel the need to create these theatrics to justify his actions to the Russian people – I know there is opposition in Russia, although even expressing an opinion slightly in disagreement has dangerous consequences, not to mention the reaction you’ll get for a public protest. But if Putin feels a need to create “justifications” for his actions, it means he must feel the need to justify them to somebody. I’m still not sure who that somebody is, but if that’s his Achilles heel, please U.S. and EU, try to figure it out and target that spot!
So, I promised at the start of this post that I would come back to the bomb that I dropped on you that I expect a Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine within the next 2-3 days. Even as I write these words I recognize that I do not, cannot fully comprehend the statement. Igor and I have had many long, heated debates about what to do, who will or will not leave, if things escalate. We reached sort-of a truce last Thursday night, mostly I think we were just exhausted from the week and the latest multi-hour “discussion” of the topic, but nonetheless we agreed to disagree and simply have to accept the fact that neither of us has any intention of leaving Ukraine if Russia invades. I am not leaving him here on his own, and there is no way he will do anything but stay and fight for Ukraine.
I want to say to all my dear family and friends, I am sorry, I wish I could help you all feel more secure about us. I won’t ask you not to worry, because I know you will in any case. But please rest assured that we are safe right now, and Igor won’t let me do anything stupid and I won’t let him do anything stupid. If you can figure out how to keep Putin from doing any more stupid things, please let President Obama know.
Anka in Kyiv 