Maui, Day 3-7

So, it’s been kinda too awesome to spend time at the computer writing about it. 🙂 We are posting photos to our Hawaiian Vacation album on Flickr. Yes, you can be jealous. It is _that_ gorgeous. Everywhere we look, every single view, is like a postcard picture. It is soooooo beautiful.

A quick recap of the past few days. Day 3, Monday, started out early on the beach. A couple hours snorkeling, sunbathing and dozing on the beach. By late morning, we were ready for a second breakfast/early lunch. But back at the apartment, Igor wasn’t feeling well. Maybe it was the sun, maybe it was the jet lag, maybe it was lungs full of seawater. Whatever it was, thankfully it passed within the day, but we spent the rest of Monday taking it easy inside.

Tuesday, Day 4, we decided to stay off the beach for a day and instead do some driving/exploring. We set out about 6:30am for the eastern side of the island, to the beginning of the 50ish-mile drive around the south-eastern rim of the lower part of Maui. I didn’t exactly realize it was 50-ish miles just for the tour route, plus another 50 to get to the start and 90 to get back to Lahaina from the end point. 200 miles for a day trip may not sound extreme, but considering a “highway” on Maui means a 1.5 lane road squeezed between a rock and a drop, where the average speed is 25-30 mph, not to mention all the stops to take in the amazing scenery and nature, 200+ miles takes a LONG time. Like 14 hours. Let’s just say, that’s not quite what I was expecting when we set out at 6:30 in the morning. By 2ish, I was really tired, and ready to head home, no matter how awesome the next scenic spot would be. Then I looked at the map and realized we were at the furthest-most point on the island from our apartment. A quick calculation and I realized it would take at least 4 hours to get home. Yikes! So, we refueled (ourselves, not the car since there was no gas station for miles around, good thing we started the day with a near-full tank!), and debated which way to go. The GPS wanted to take us back the way we had come, which was a lovely route but I just couldn’t face that drive again. Ahead, not knowing what to expect? The printed map had a note that parts of the road were unpaved and quite desolate. That doesn’t scare us, we live in Ukraine! So forward we went. The road was as narrow, even narrower in many places, and definitely unpaved and desolate much of the way, but we got to see a completely different eco-system on the island. We went from tropical jungle to black sand beach to dry steppe with sheer cliffs – cattle land, actually. We even got stuck in a cow “traffic jam”, so much like rural Ukraine! 🙂 It was harrowing at times, but stunning views the entire time. We stopped for a quick dinner in the town of Lahaina (no one had any intention of cooking after that hell of a day), and finally got back to the apartment around 8:30pm. Wow! What a day! Waterfalls, tropical jungles, black sand beaches….

On Wednesday, the last thing I wanted to do was get in the car. We did take a quick drive to a nearby farmer’s market for fresh fruit and veggies, and discovered the awesomeness that is papaya! What a difference it makes to have a fruit in its native climate. So delish! And the pineapple! Oh, incredible. The rest of Wednesday was spent on the beach, then grilling, then relaxing on the patio. Perfect day.

Since we again got a bit too much sun on Wednesday, we decided to do some touring again on Thursday. We decided to go to the smaller, nearer volcano, Iao Valley. It was an easy drive, and not quite as exciting as we had anticipated, but lovely. We didn’t get anywhere near the volcano crater, but the Iao State Park was worth the visit. Then we just looked in the GPS for another “attraction” nearby and ended up at Maui Tropical Plantation. It’s a toursity place, but we had a nice time and got some nice gifts and souvenirs. Overpriced, but hey, it’s vacation. We went to Mama’s Fish House for a late lunch, because a friend recommended it. The food was amazing, and the mai tais even better. 🙂 Then we putzed around in Kahului for a bit at various shops. Our underwater camera up and died on Wednesday, which is super sad ’cause underwater is as stunning as above here, and we thought to get a new one. No such luck, not a single underwater camera in stock at the 3 stores where one would expect to find them! Such a bummer. Back to the apartment for a late afternoon swim with the turtles, dinner from the grill and homemade mai tais, and collapse into bed, exhausted, around 8:30. This is a great life.

Today, Friday, was again an early start. Nothing like a 13-hour time difference to make waking up at 4:30am a regular habit! The real benefit is watching the beautiful sunrise around 5/5:30 every morning. The farmer’s market opened at 7, so I made a quick trip for fresh supplies of pineapple, papaya, and veggies for the grill this weekend, then we went to the beach! Amazing snorkeling today, crystal clear water and TONS of colorful and frisky fish! Oh for an underwater camera! We even saw a sea turtle relaxing under the edge of the coral reef. So cool! Back to the apartment around 10:30 for second breakfast/early lunch, and Igor made a new variation on the mai tai theme (’cause he can’t help but “improve” on any recipe) which we dubbed Tropical Bandera (Ukrainians will get the joke). Wow, does his version of the cocktail ever pack a wallop! Not exactly a light lunchtime beverage. We had booked massages for the afternoon, which was exactly what we needed after the long flights, not to mention the 14-hour car day on Tuesday!

Now we are just chilling a bit, relaxing until we go for a luau dinner. The masseuse, a Swede who’s lived on Maui for about 6 years, said we booked at a good place, and she recommended some other good excursions, restaurants and farmers markets. I think I’d happily stay here forever!

Maui, Day 2

Rainbows!! Enormous rainbows!

Day 2 was about 3 and a half days long. Jet lag and the 13-hour time difference from Kyiv really got the best of both of us today. We were awake at 3am, watched the stars, tried to sleep some more, got up when the birds starting rousing and watched the sunrise around 5:00/5:30. Had breakfast of pineapple and cherries (YUM), Kona coffee (YUM) and were on the beach by 7:00. The water was a bit rougher this morning, and thus cloudier from sand swirling in the water. We could see lots of fish, but the photos didn’t turn out so great. Looks like late afternoon is the best time for good underwater photography, when the sea turtles come in for dinner and the water is calmer. Note to self!

Our beach is in a nice cove, so the water in general is calmer and the waves not very big. Some guys are surfing here, but I think they are beginners and using the quiet water to learn and practice. It’s pretty cool to watch them standing on those thin boards and paddling out to sea! One guy was practicing turning around on the board today, hopping a quick 180, reminded me of a ballet dancer spinning in the air. 🙂

After about an hour in the water, I was feeling pretty tired. Although the waves are not hard, there is definitely a constant current that keeps you working. The water is not very deep, we can see the bottom all the time, but you do have to work all the time to stay in place or to not drift too far. It is more tiring work than I expected.

By 8:30 I was ready for a more substantial breakfast than just fruit. So I left Igor at the beach and drove 1/2 mile to the local grocery store. I putzed around, got some different salads from the deli, steak for Igor, salad fixins and general supplies for 2-3 days, in hopes of being able to stay put in our little slice of heaven for a few days. Back in the apartment by 9:30, fridge stocked and just starting to wonder if I should go get Igor – lo and behold he shows up on the patio! Looking happy but whipped. We had some lunch (breakfast?) and by 10:30 I was ready for a nap. We’d already put in a full day, and the day was just starting! Igor laughed at me, but within an hour he was deep asleep, too.

I got up around 2pm, sat on the patio – oh how I never tire of that beautiful sound of the waves rolling in, the birds chirping, the breeze caressing the palm trees. I enjoyed the quiet peacefulness for a few hours by myself. Our apartment is on the first line, 10 feet from a small ridge that drops about 10 feet down to the rocky shore. Nothing between us and the view. Heaven.

Finally at 5pm I nudged Igor awake. We had a delicious dinner of salmon fillets from the deli (in a super tasty local sauce, gotta get a recipe!), a big salad, sourdough bread (my favorite!!!) and fresh fruit for dessert. Then off to the beach for an evening swim with the turtles! I forgot my camera this time, so no photos, but something tells me we’ll have lots of photos in the 11 days to come. After about an hour, we came back to the apartment, cleaned up, and had a drink in our “backyard”. We pulled the chaise lounge chairs right up to the edge of the ridge above the rock beach and watched the sunset. Gorgeous!!

The days are about 14 hours long, I mean there is sunlight from about 5/5:30 in the morning until about 7/7:30 at night. Quite a difference from the super long days we have in Kyiv this time of year, when the sun comes up around 4/4:30am and sets around 10/10:30pm. But it seems just right here. 🙂

After it was dark, we went for a walk around our complex. It’s not a very big complex, we purposefully picked a smaller place because we didn’t want to be around hordes of people. And it’s still early in the season, so only about half of the units are even occupied, which is even better from our perspective! The apartment buildings are 2 floors, with up and down units, everyone has a patio (first floor) or balcony (second floor). Other than the building right on the ocean front, the rest are built around a lovely green yard with lots of aromatic and colorful flowering trees and bushes. Every unit’s patio or balcony opens to this lovely, quiet space. We enjoyed the walk around, and appreciated the beauty of the complex, but have no regrets we splurged for the ocean view! There are also two small swimming pools in the complex, and one has an adjacent hot tub. There are also 2 grill stations available for residents, with 3 gas grills at each station. Igor’s going to try his hand at it one of these evenings! He’s always grilled on wood or charcoal, but I’m sure he’ll master the gas grill with his usual cooking prowess.

Back at the apartment by 8:30, I was ready for a bite to eat. We sat under the stars on the lounge chairs, sipped our drinks and nibbled on snacks. I laid my chair down flat and marveled at the sky. Big Dipper, Little Dipper and Orion are the only constellations I can easily pick out, and I quickly found the first two among the billions of pin pricks of light in the black velvety sky. The thin sliver of the new moon impressed us with its bright light – incredible how much natural light there is at night when there is so little artificial light interfering with your eyes! The moonlight made a bright and clear path along the ocean surface, so beautiful!

We feel asleep in our lounge chairs, lulled by the gentle ocean. At some point Igor nudged me awake to go inside, it was drizzling (more like misting, hardly noticeable). He was up again at 3am, and I heard him get a snack and go to sit on the patio under the stars again. I slept more-or-less through the night, finally go up at 6 to make coffee and sit on the patio with the breakfasting birds. Day 3 is beginning. It’s going to be a good day.

Maui, Day 1

Oh my god, it’s utterly amazing. It’s exactly like I dreamed, but didn’t believe it could be real.

We swam with sea turtles this afternoon.

We watched the sunset behind the next island.

We woke up at 3:00am and laid under the stars. Stars like I have never seen before.

Feeling better, feeling maybe even a bit optimistic

Once again, I am sorry for not writing here for so long, and for not responding to your emails. The past 5-6 weeks have really kicked my butt. After months of not being able to do anything but watch the news, try to help on Maidan, and worry worry worry and worry, I had to dip back into my “regular” life and actually do my job again. Preparing for 2 conferences, which include 3 presentations and a workshop I am leading plus reports, and a million other neglected responsibilities …. at least being swamped with work helped me not obsess 24/7 about the Russian invasion of Crimea and then eastern Ukraine and their attempts in other regions.

I also participated in the OSCE election observation mission in Macedonia in April, which is always an interesting experience, and I got to add a new country to my list! Macedonia is beautiful, by the way. I was in the Struga region, around Lake Ohrid, which was especially lovely.

And we finally made it to the critically important presidential election in Ukraine, and Petro Poroshenko won in the first round, the first president in Ukraine to be elected in the first round, and with the highest voter turnout ever, something like 60-70% of eligible voters participated in the election. It’s important on so many levels that Poroshenko has a clear mandate from the people to take the country forward. I don’t envy him, he’s got a hell of a lot to deal with, and a hell of a lot of Ukrainians watching closely, with high but cautious expectations.

I left Kyiv early on Monday, May 26, the day after the elections, for the NAFSA conference in San Diego, CA. Don’t ask me how San Diego is, I had no time to see or do anything but work, and spent a depressing amount of time inside a cavernous exhibition hall devoid of all natural sunlight. I hear it’s a nice city, though, and there is water or something nearby. I did have fun sporting a patriotic Ukrainian wardrobe throughout the conference, and was really happy my outfits sparked many conversations with friends, colleagues and even strangers. It felt really important to be able to explain to so many people what is going on in Ukraine, to dispel myths and allay fears, and to point folks in the right direction for reliable news and away from Russian propaganda.

Yesterday, Igor departed Kyiv for Frankfurt and then a 15-hour flight direct to San Francisco, where we met at the airport and spent the night in a nearby hotel. Now we sit in the airport lounge awaiting our next flight to……. MAUI!!!!! We’ve been planning this vacation for over a year, and can hardly believe it is finally here. And can hardly believe, after all that has happened in the past six months, that we can finally relax, can finally enjoy some quiet time together in a little slice of heaven.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not all fine and dandy in Ukraine. The Russian terrorists are still in eastern Ukraine, marauding and looting and terrorizing innocent civilians and battling with Ukrainian soldiers. And it’s become known in the past few days that Chechen thugs have been recruited to wreak havoc in Ukraine now, too, on the Kremlin’s payroll. But there are a few points that are important to understand.

First, when you hear “eastern Ukraine” in the news, it’s not like the eastern 50% of the country is under attack or even threat. We’re talking literally on the easternmost edge of the country, right along the border with Russia, around Luhansk and Donetsk. Sad to say, it’s apparently not a sexy enough story for the media to report about 98% of the country being calm and peaceful, happy with the changes brought by the Maidan Revolution, ready to move forward with reforming the country and getting on with our lives.

Second, the Ukrainian military will have an elected Commander-in-Chief once Poroshenko is inaugurated on June 7. Obviously, the really tough decisions that have to be made to deal with this situation could not be made by an acting president the past 3 months.

Third, I have come to understand that Putin lives in Opposite World. Once you realize that he means the exact opposite of everything he says, you will find him much less confusing. “I’ve ordered the troops to move away from the Ukrainian border” means they are moving closer. “I will recognize the results of the Ukrainian elections” means he will not. Etc etc etc. Now you don’t have to be surprised when he does the exact opposite of what he said he would do, because you already know he always meant the opposite!

Time to board. We are off to Maui! Photos will be on Flickr. Enjoy!

Punishment, Putin-style

Putin has the strangest way of punishing the foreigners he perceives as enemies.

Obama signs the Magnitsky bill? Putin bans Americans from banning Russian orphans. Who suffers? The kids who are not allowed to have homes, loving parents, and the medical treatment most of them need.

Ukrainian gazillionaire who owns Roshen candy factories is active in Maidan and is running for president? Putin closes his factory in Russia. Who suffers? The Russian citizens who lost their jobs.

There are many more examples like this already documented, and, sadly, more to come. How many Russian citizens have to be punished before they realize what is going on?

People’s Republic of Idiots

So, the geniuses sent to Kharkiv to start a mess there knew the city so well that they first attacked the opera house, thinking it was the mayor’s building. When the stumbled upon the auditorium – oops! Not gonna find a mayor here, dudes.

The geniuses sent to Donetsk (who did manage to find the office they were looking for) took over the regional administration building Sunday night, and on Monday morning hastily held a “vote” declaring the establishment of the People’s Republic of Donetsk, and immediately asked for Russia to protect them. Obviously, this was not a spontaneous “uprising”, they not only had supplies ready (truck loads of tires were delivered, for example, to build barricades), they also had thought enough ahead they even had a special banner made for their new “republic”.

Monday was tense, I’ll admit that. The government didn’t appear to be moving quickly or effectively, but I think we’ve all lost perspective with such constant access to information (correct and incorrect).

In any case, by Tuesday morning, the Kharkiv dipsh*ts had been cleared out of the government building and were under arrest. The self-proclaimed Republic of Donetsk unproclaimed itself, due to lack of support from anyone else in Donetsk. Dipsh*ts didn’t bring enough people with them!

From EuromaidanPR:
Separatists canceled their decision to establish the Republic of Donetsk – Liga.Net – April 8, 2014, 11:55 Kyiv time
Donetsk citizens outraged by the fact that “hundred crazy people” took decision on behalf of more then one million city of Donetsk and four million Donetsk Region.

Separatists have canceled the decision to establish the Republic of Donetsk. This news was reported by Alexei Matsuka, page editor of News of Donbass in his Facebook account. People of Donetsk responded to the proclamation of the republic Donetsk with indignation. “In such megacity as Donetsk hundred abnormal people proclaimed Donetsk as republic. This is sort of joke ” – people of Donetsk write in social networks.

As a reminder. Separatists held talks with Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Yarema this night under mediation of oligarch Rinat Akhmetov. Extremists promised the government to surrender their weapons. However, this the morning separatists declared that they wait for the assault from riot police and they are not going to disperse. They urge women to stay near the Donetsk Regional State Administration and become a human shield.

It’s not over, by any means. Separatists still have buildings in Donetsk and Luhansk, and tried to take buildings in Mykolayiv last night.

Meanwhile, in Russia, just looking like you might be thinking about protesting is enough to get you arrested.

The storm after the calm

It’s eerie that just a couple hours after I wrote yesterday’s post, Putin took his next step.

Putin clearly laid out his plans in late March, using ousted president Viktor Yanukovych to deliver his message to Ukrainians: “Demand a referendum on the status of each region within Ukraine”.

This is not going to be a “traditional” war, not even a “modern” war. Putin is waging his war on Ukraine one region at a time, using not a regular army of soldiers to invade, but using his “army” of paid provocateurs and bandits. Just as he almost never speaks himself to the public, famously giving one marathon press conference a year and instead delivering his messages via mouthpieces like Yanukovych or his more preferred frontman Dmitri Kiselev, he is dressing up his aggression against Ukraine in separatists’ clothes, bogus referendum to join Russia, and “pleas for help” from self-declared officials”. This was exactly the scenario he played out in Crimea, and now he’s doing it in eastern Ukraine.

Some articles I meant to share yesterday:

Follow the Money

Putin’s Brain: Alexander Dugin and the Philosophy Behind Putin’s Invasion of Crimea

The calm before the storm?

We continue to slowly come out of the fog that has enveloped us for so many months. Maybe it’s the sunshine, the warm temperatures, the flowers popping up and the first apricot tree to bloom on our street… but we feel a little bit better. Maybe it’s the not-so-terrible news we wake up to and go to bed thinking about – parliament is working, making progress on reforms; the police are working, making progress on investigating and arresting the snipers who murdered demonstrators on Maidan on those terrible days in February. There are still many, many questions to be answered, many issues to be dealt with, but we feel now a little bit of hope for the future.

We all still ache with sorrow about the occupation of Crimea, a physical pain from the amputation of a part of the body of the nation. We still watch the borders with Russia intensely, vigilantly. We still read the increasingly ridiculous and absurd Kremlin propaganda, ironically called the “news” in Russia, and we still work at spreading the truth.*

But we start to do “normal” things again. Dinner with friends whom we haven’t seen in months. We shared our Maidan stories and comforted each other, and actually talked a bit about other things, too. We went to a social event, the opening a new photo exhibition at the Fulbright Commission, about the Women of Maidan.

We went to a ceremony yesterday at the hospital behind our apartment building, the one that received hundreds of Maidan’s victims, the one I watched from my balcony on February 20, when I counted 45 ambulances bringing the wounded and dead, the victims of the Berkut snipers. I stopped counting at 45, but the ambulances kept coming all night. (Six weeks later, I still tense up and catch my breath when I hear the ambulance sirens approaching.) The ceremony was in honor of the hospital staff who saved hundreds of lives during Maidan, and a memorial was dedicated to them at the emergency entrance.

I asked Igor the other night if we were wrong to feel less afraid, to start to do “normal” things again, if it is maybe part of Putin’s strategy to let us feel calm long enough that we lose our vigilance, so he can attack when we no longer expect it. Igor explains it differently, he sees that Ukrainians understand the country is already at war, and we have already adapted to living in a new way. We aren’t less aware of the threats around us, we have incorporated them into our lives. We aren’t less vigilant, we are ready. Everything we do is enveloped by Maidan, it is who we are now, it is how we live now. We have learned how to be calm under threat, which is a very different kind of calm.

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk was interviewed on the BBC’s HARDtalk, I highly suggest watching the clips, or better yet, get a British VPN and watch the full interview on the BBC’s iPlayer. (Unfortunately, the full interview is only available in the UK, but a VPN like Astrill is a nice work-around.) He says exactly what Igor has been saying, “It’s not just a matter of strength, it’s a matter of spirit.” This is what Putin underestimated about Ukrainians, and if he invades Ukraine from across another border, this is what will be his downfall. Ukrainians are NOT Russians, they do not respond to him or his style the way Russians do. As I wrote last month, Ukrainians will fight to obliteration before submitting again to rule from Moscow, I have no doubts about this.

What can the U.S. and the EU do? Well, John McCain just needs to shut the f*ck up, first of all. Ukraine is an industrial country that EXPORTS military equipment, including to Russia (although not anymore; Russia’s response, as always, is ironic and almost humorous – we didn’t want your stuff anyway!).

The U.S. shipment of MREs is actually extremely helpful, and is exactly the kind of useful support needed right now.

What REALLY can the U.S. and the EU do? Suck it up, and take some tough economic actions that are going to hurt you a little bit, too. Stop buying Russian gas and oil, and stop selling goods to Russia. It’s that simple, it’s that tough.

We’re not just asking you to make some sacrifices, trust me. The Ukrainian parliament passed a very tough austerity package last week, including deep cuts in government spending on itself (the hardest kind of cut for any politician, eh?). The price of gas is going to nearly double for most Ukrainians in the near future.

Rachel Maddow reports better than I can about the actions the U.S. can and should take (the first part is interesting, but if you want to get to the point, skip to 5:30).
http://player.theplatform.com/p/2E2eJC/EmbeddedOffSite?guid=n_maddow_4ships_140401

Some more good reading and watching:
Putin’s Patriotism is Phony, His Desperation is Real
The ideology of the EuroMaidan Revolution, by Serhiy Kvit, former president of Kyiv Mohyla Academy, Minister of Education since Feb. 27, was a Fulbright Scholar at Ohio University!

Ukraine – The Birth of a Nation: “historical documentary film in 4 parts about the history of Ukraine” (haven’t had a chance to watch all this yet, but am looking forward to it)

Jung & Naiv in Ukraine: incredible videos and interviews. I found a link to his Odesa visit on a blog I read, and discovered he has 20 videos on Ukraine and Maidan so far. Also VERY much looking forward to watching them all.

* I decided the “other world” Merkel said Putin lives in is called “Opposite World” – it’s so much easier to understand him once you realize what he and his puppets say is actually the opposite of what he thinks and intends to do. Read this article as if it’s in The Onion, as if every statement has the opposite meaning of the words used, and it’s not only much more real, it’s also kinda hilarious. (It also helps to understand that Yanukovych is just a ventriloquist’s puppet, there is absolutely no way Putin allows him to say or do anything publicly on his own.)

Webinar “Ukrainian Struggle Explained: The Maidan Revolution, Resistance to Military Intervention and Citizens’ Organizing”

Many thanks to my dear friend Madeleine for sharing the announcement for this webinar! An outstanding lineup of speakers.

“Ukrainian Struggle Explained: The Maidan Revolution, Resistance to Military Intervention and Citizens’ Organizing”
ICNC Live Webinar Discussion – open to the public
Wednesday, April 9, 2014 / 12:00pm – 1:45pm EST

An ICNC-moderated webinar discussion will bring together four Ukrainian guests with backgrounds in academia, journalism, activism, and policy to talk about the political conflict in Ukraine. A number of false narratives have emerged that branded the Maidan Revolution as violent, driven by radicals and external powers. After the invasion of Crimea and its annexation to Russia some commentators suggested that the outcome of the referendum reflected the preferences of the majority of the Crimean population and the political change represented by the annexation of Crimea to Russia was in fact engineered peacefully, which contrasted with the supposedly violent nature of the Maidan Revolution that brought down the Yanukovych regime.

This webinar will address the prevailing misconceptions that emerged around the conflict in Ukraine. It will discuss the origin, goals, strategies and tactics behind the Ukrainian Maidan movement, as well as its composition and its responses to the state-sponsored repression. Webinar discussants will talk about the role of a violent minority – a radical flank in the movement – and reflect on the impact of external actors in the Ukrainian struggle. How, and more importantly why was the Yanukovych regime ultimately brought down? In the final part of the conversation, the speakers will offer their views on the ongoing mobilization of the Ukrainian society against Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and against a possible Russian invasion of other parts of Ukraine, as well as civic organizing to support but also pressure the Ukrainian government to implement needed reforms.

Speakers
-Nataliya Gumenyuk, Ukrainian journalist, Co-Founder of Hromadske.TV
-Olga Onuch, Newton Fellow, University of Oxford / Research Fellow, Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute
-Dmytro Potekhin, Trainer and consultant in strategic planning and nonviolent resistance
-Olena Tregub, Policy expert of the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation and a writer for Kyiv Post

The next stage

First, my recommended media since my last post:

Excellent interview on “Fresh Air”, highly informative, very factual, excellent overview of the history. One of the few (maybe only) pieces on U.S. media I have found that analyzes the situation in the historical context accurately. Highly recommend listening to the entire interview, the summary text leaves out some very important points.

Another article by Masha Gessen, who wrote a biography of Putin and is one of the few Americans/few Russians who has one foot solidly in each world and can appreciate/critique both of them with full credibility. (Page 2 is the most important part of her article, please read all the way through.)

Any/All of the recent the Charlie Rose Show programs about Ukraine (search by keyword “Ukraine”). There is a lot I don’t agree with, but I appreciate the calm discourse and respectful dialogue – so uncommon on U.S. TV these days!

And this article from the Atlantic Council, which, combined with the Fresh Air interview, support my assessment of what is happening and what is about to happen. I wish I could find an article that does NOT confirm the conclusions I have already made, but so far, no luck.

My conclusion? Russia will invade mainland Ukraine within the next few days. There are reports that former president Yanukovich will give a press conference tomorrow (Friday), although apparently now it’s not entirely clear if he will make a public appearance or not. In any case, when we first heard he would speak, Igor’s analysis/conclusion was that Yanukovich will again declare himself the legitimate president and express concern about the fascists/extremists/nationalists in Ukraine, and either directly or in a round-about way ask for Russia to intervene, thus paving the way for Putin to give the order. Considering the above Atlantic Council article, it seems this weekend will very likely be the next step.

I know that’s quite a bombshell to drop, and I promise to come back to it before this post ends. There are a few other things I’d like to tell you about first.

I attended a couple events last week that gave me hope. The first was a meeting with the new minister of economics and the second with the new minister of education. Years ago, I used to regularly attend events and even had working meetings with government representatives (back in my UNDP/UN Volunteer days). They were generally unproductive, uninspiring and even maddening. I stopped going to them entirely at some point, don’t even remember when was the last time I went to an event with a speaker from the Ukrainian government, they were so stupid and such a waste of time. So to go to TWO within the same week was kind of a big deal for me. And WOW, was I ever impressed! I simply cannot express the utter relief I felt at both events – I was soooo comforted to realize that smart, competent, educated people are in positions of leadership now, finally! They didn’t get the jobs because they are related to someone or are somebody’s buddy, but because they actually are experts in their fields. Both recognized that they have full messes on their hands, that there is a ton of work to do and it won’t be easy to fix all the damage that was done by the previous administration, but they have realistic and solid plans about how to start tackling all the problems. That gives me hope.

Unfortunately, our neighbor to the north does not want them to be successful, and is doing his best to distract/disrupt/screw with them as much as possible. We are all heartbroken about what has happened to Crimea, and all those poor people who mean nothing to Putin and he just screws with their lives…. it’s so sad.

I know the U.S. and, to the extent they can agree on it and are willing to suck up a little pain themselves, the EU are working both publicly and behind the scenes very intensely to try to help Ukraine. I am SUPER impressed with the extremely vocal and visible support the State Department is giving to Ukraine. I know those in the U.S. probably don’t follow any U.S. Embassies on Facebook or Twitter, and might not have ever even looked at the State Department’s website, much less the website of the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, or any other embassy for that matter. I understand, I never did before I lived abroad. Americans, especially those in the U.S., are not their audience and they don’t promote their activities to you. So before you criticize President Obama or Secretary Kerry or “the government” for doing nothing, please peruse some of the sites linked here. The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine is running a brilliant campaign on Facebook to counter the lies being spread by Putin’s propaganda machine. They post everything in 4 languages: Ukrainian, Russian, Crimean Tatar and English. I *heart* them. Many other U.S Embassies in the region are also engaged in the United for Ukraine campaign, especially those in countries with Russian minorities whom Putin is targeting with his dishonest and hateful propaganda.

As for the EU, well, my opinion hasn’t changed a whole lot, although I agree with the Economist that the EU managed to “come up with a sterner response than many expected”. A friend pointed out to me recently that this is, essentially, the first seriously major conflict the EU has had to deal with on its own border, since its inception, and for the first time they have to have an EU foreign policy, and not the individual foreign policies of each member state. OK, I’ll give them that. But damn it, get your sh*t together already ’cause you don’t have a lot of time to dicker amongst yourselves anymore!

I wasn’t really impressed with the first round of sanctions President Obama imposed against those who were essentially just guilty of carrying out their orders. Don’t get me wrong, I hold them responsible, too, and they deserve to be punished for following illegal and immoral orders, but it struck me initially as punishing the messenger. The second round of sanctions made the strategy much clearer to me, and I can’t say I disagree with it – moving in closer, hitting not only the “decision makers” (ultimately Putin alone makes decisions, but hitting those whom he likes to have in his kabuki theater to sign off on those decisions = closing in on him), but also Russian businesses that are really just fronts / money launderers for Putin.

Although I fully support the sanctions, and hope the U.S. and the EU will continue to add to their lists, I still do not believe they will have any effect on Putin at all. As I said before, isolating Putin both politically and economically will absolutely NOT have the effect the West desires – he isolates Russia himself and does not care at all to be part of any international community. As Dr. Martin states in her interview on “Fresh Air”: “And by his recent actions, he has shown that he no longer cares about the economic internationalists among the elites — the people who were pushing for Russia to join the World Trade Organization, the people who recognize that Russia’s economy is in stagnation and that the only way to get it out of stagnation is to diversify beyond its petroleum dependence and to really become a player in the international economy. Putin has chosen, instead, to throw in his lot with ethnic nationalists, who are associated both with conservative elements in the Russian Orthodox Church and with the former KGB.”

And thus my conclusion that Putin’s next step will be boots and tanks on the ground in mainland Ukraine. In his own words, from his March 18 speech in the Kremlin: “… the overall basis of the culture, civilisation and human values that unite the peoples of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.” Putin has spent every day since the illegal referendum in Crimea prepping the stage for his next steps – invasion of mainland Ukraine, and ultimately subjugation of the Slavic peoples in Ukraine and Belarus (“reunification with Russia” in his bizarre world view).

The one thing he continues to do that I just don’t get is that he tries to set the stage and create these scenes of artificial “justifications” and “reasons” for his actions. I truly do not believe he cares one iota for international law or what the world thinks of him. I guess maybe it’s a tiny good sign that he might feel the need to create these theatrics to justify his actions to the Russian people – I know there is opposition in Russia, although even expressing an opinion slightly in disagreement has dangerous consequences, not to mention the reaction you’ll get for a public protest. But if Putin feels a need to create “justifications” for his actions, it means he must feel the need to justify them to somebody. I’m still not sure who that somebody is, but if that’s his Achilles heel, please U.S. and EU, try to figure it out and target that spot!

So, I promised at the start of this post that I would come back to the bomb that I dropped on you that I expect a Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine within the next 2-3 days. Even as I write these words I recognize that I do not, cannot fully comprehend the statement. Igor and I have had many long, heated debates about what to do, who will or will not leave, if things escalate. We reached sort-of a truce last Thursday night, mostly I think we were just exhausted from the week and the latest multi-hour “discussion” of the topic, but nonetheless we agreed to disagree and simply have to accept the fact that neither of us has any intention of leaving Ukraine if Russia invades. I am not leaving him here on his own, and there is no way he will do anything but stay and fight for Ukraine.

I want to say to all my dear family and friends, I am sorry, I wish I could help you all feel more secure about us. I won’t ask you not to worry, because I know you will in any case. But please rest assured that we are safe right now, and Igor won’t let me do anything stupid and I won’t let him do anything stupid. If you can figure out how to keep Putin from doing any more stupid things, please let President Obama know.